Karachi, Pakistan – Web Desk: Pakistan’s business leaders have warned that escalating tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran could disrupt key global shipping routes, increase energy prices and place fresh pressure on the country’s fragile economy.
Industry representatives say the reported blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane through which a large share of Pakistan’s oil imports passes, could significantly impact trade flows and fuel costs if the situation persists.
The Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) President Rehan Hanif warned that Pakistan’s already strained balance of payments could deteriorate further if maritime trade is disrupted.
“Pakistan’s daily exports average around $85 million. If shipments are halted for 10 days, the country could lose nearly $1 billion in export revenue,” Hanif said.
The Middle East conflict has unsettled global shipping lanes and heightened fears of rising oil prices, posing risks to import-dependent economies like Pakistan. The country is currently working to stabilize its economy under a $7 billion program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Pakistan’s largest oil refiner, Cnergyico Pk Limited, said approximately 80% of Pakistan’s crude oil imports and nearly 25% of its gasoil supplies typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making the route vital for the country’s energy security.
Hanif cautioned that crude oil prices could surge beyond $100 per barrel if the maritime corridor remains blocked for an extended period.
However, government officials say Pakistan currently holds adequate petroleum reserves. Finance adviser Khurram Schehzad stated that there is no immediate shortage of fuel supplies but acknowledged that prolonged regional disruption could affect the country’s energy supply chain and external accounts.
Textile exporters also fear a potential decline in overseas shipments. All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) Chairman Kamran Arshad said Pakistan’s exports could fall by 10–20% in March due to rising freight costs and higher raw material prices linked to global oil markets.
Pakistan’s textile industry — the country’s largest export sector — could face increased logistics costs, while a rise in imports may further widen the trade deficit.
Official data shows Pakistan’s trade deficit expanded by 25% to $25 billion during July–February of fiscal year 2026, with exports falling to $20.5 billion while imports climbed to $45.5 billion.
Despite regional tensions, Pakistan’s main export shipping routes to Europe and the United States remain operational, according to Pakistan Textile Exports Association (PTEA) patron-in-chief Khurram Mukhtar.
However, exports to some Middle Eastern markets have faced temporary disruption after AD Ports Group suspended certain export operations at Karachi Gateway Terminal Limited (KGTL).
Analysts say the broader economic impact will depend on how long tensions in the Middle East continue.
Shankar Talreja of Topline Securities Ltd. noted that a prolonged conflict could also affect remittances and global trade flows, adding pressure to Pakistan’s external accounts.
Meanwhile, analysts at Arif Habib Limited warned that exporters could face higher freight charges and shipment delays even if shipping routes remain open, particularly if global recession fears begin to slow demand in Europe and the United States.
