Islamabad — Pakistan’s export performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025–26 has raised alarms among policymakers and trade analysts, as official data reveals a decline in exports across 30 of the country’s 71 key sectors. The downturn has contributed to a widening trade deficit and cast doubt on the feasibility of meeting annual export targets.
According to figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the trade deficit ballooned to $9.4 billion between July and September. Exports fell by 3.88% year-on-year to $7.6 billion (Rs2.15 trillion), while imports surged by 13.9% to $17 billion (Rs4.82 trillion).
Among the hardest-hit sectors were jewellery, furniture, carpets, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastic materials, rice, vegetables, tobacco, seed oils, cotton fabrics, crude petroleum products, transport equipment, and handicrafts. Food exports saw a sharp 31% decline, with rice exports plunging 42% and Basmati rice down 43.6%. Vegetable exports dropped 41%, tobacco exports fell 48%, and sugar exports were completely suspended. Exports of nuts and oilseeds tumbled by 68%.
Textile exports offered a mixed picture: while cotton cloth exports declined by 14%, overall textile exports rose 5.6%, and ready-made garments grew by 6%. Cement exports surged by 51%, and fruit exports increased by 17%.
Other sectors continued to struggle—carpets and mats fell by 12%, cutlery by 12%, pharmaceuticals by 7%, and transport equipment by 38%. The jewellery sector experienced a dramatic 98% plunge, and handicraft exports dropped by 94%. Furniture exports declined by 12%.
On the import side, food imports rose by 35%, machinery by 21%, the transport group by a staggering 112%, and textile-related imports by 11%. However, petroleum imports declined by 6.7%, and imports of petroleum products and natural gas dropped by 30%.
The government had set a trade deficit ceiling of $29.92 billion and an export target of $35.28 billion for FY2025–26. Under the five-year “Udaan Plan,” Pakistan aims to boost exports to $60 billion. However, with only a $2.5 billion increase targeted for the current fiscal year, the first quarter’s performance suggests that achieving even this modest goal may prove challenging.
The data underscores the urgent need for policy recalibration and targeted support to struggling sectors, as Pakistan navigates a complex global trade environment and domestic economic pressures.
