Karachi, Sindh Likely to See Below-Normal Rainfall From September to November
KARACHI, PAKISTAN — WEB DESK: Karachi and much of Sindh are expected to experience below-normal rainfall from September through November 2026, with predominantly dry conditions likely to prevail across the province, according to a seasonal outlook attributed to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
The three-month outlook indicates that southeastern Sindh is particularly likely to receive less rainfall than its seasonal norm, while rain prospects are also expected to remain limited across Karachi and most other parts of the province.
The forecast covers September, October and November, making it a seasonal climate outlook rather than a prediction that Karachi will remain completely rain-free on every day during the period.
That distinction is important: below-normal rainfall refers to accumulated precipitation relative to the climatic average and does not mean that no isolated rain, drizzle or short-lived weather system can affect Karachi or Sindh during the next three months.
Dry Conditions Expected Across Sindh
Climate models cited in the report indicate that dry weather is likely to dominate Sindh during the September-November period.
Some areas of the province could experience a more pronounced rainfall deficit, with southeastern Sindh specifically identified as facing below-normal precipitation. Karachi and most of the rest of Sindh also have relatively low rainfall prospects.
The outlook follows an unusually weak monsoon season for Karachi.
PMD officials said in late August that the city had recorded exceptionally low monsoon rainfall in 2026, with conditions comparable to 1997, another year affected by El Niño conditions.
The department had already indicated that Karachi’s prospects for significant monsoon rainfall during September were extremely limited.
El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole in Focus
The seasonal outlook says El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to continue influencing the broader climate pattern.
Both are large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena capable of altering rainfall patterns across South Asia, although their effects vary according to their strength, timing and interaction with other atmospheric conditions.
PMD earlier linked Karachi’s weak 2026 monsoon in part to active El Niño conditions and the absence of favourable low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea.
This does not mean El Niño alone determines whether Karachi receives rain on any particular day. Local and regional systems — including Arabian Sea circulations, low-pressure areas and moisture flows — can still produce shorter spells of precipitation.
Northern Pakistan Could See Opposite Pattern
The three-month outlook points to a contrasting rainfall pattern farther north.
According to the forecast, upper Punjab, Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the broader September-November period.
That regional contrast is already evident in shorter-range forecasts.
PMD’s Flood Forecasting Division said scattered to widespread rainfall was expected across upper river catchments, upper Punjab and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through September 5.
The same official outlook expected mainly hot and humid conditions across much of the remaining country.
The northern rainfall forecast should not be applied to Karachi, as Pakistan’s weather varies considerably by region and the mechanisms affecting northern monsoon systems differ from those governing rainfall along the Sindh coast.
Karachi Had an Unusually Dry Monsoon
Karachi’s weak seasonal performance provides important context for the new outlook.
PMD reported in late August that the metropolis had experienced one of its weakest monsoon rainfall seasons in nearly 29 years, comparing the conditions with those observed in 1997.
The department said at the time that no significant rain-producing system was apparent over the Arabian Sea and that prospects for September monsoon rainfall in Karachi were very low.
However, seasonal forecasts are probabilistic rather than absolute.
An individual thunderstorm, coastal drizzle episode or short-duration rain system can occur even during a month that ultimately ends with below-normal total rainfall.
What the Three-Month Forecast Means for Karachi
For Karachi residents, the outlook therefore points toward a drier-than-usual September-November period, rather than a guarantee of three completely dry months.
The probability of significant widespread rainfall is lower, according to the seasonal assessment, while occasional localised precipitation remains possible.
For Sindh more broadly, below-normal rainfall could have implications for soil moisture, agriculture and water availability if the deficit persists, although the latest outlook does not by itself quantify those potential impacts. Such consequences depend on local water reserves, irrigation supplies, crop cycles and the actual rainfall eventually recorded.
Seasonal climate forecasts can also change as oceanic and atmospheric conditions evolve.
For immediate weather decisions, residents should therefore rely on PMD’s shorter-range daily forecasts and official warnings rather than treating the September-November seasonal outlook as a day-by-day forecast.
Pakistan Meteorological Department official forecasts and alerts
As of the latest seasonal assessment, however, the broad signal remains clear: Karachi and much of Sindh are likely to experience below-normal rainfall through November, while parts of northern Pakistan could see wetter-than-normal conditions.
