Beijing, China – Web Desk: China has condemned the recent United States and Israeli strikes on Iran but is unlikely to offer direct support to Tehran, as Beijing prioritizes energy security, diplomatic balance and its relationship with Washington, analysts say.
The escalating Middle East conflict has raised fears of a global energy supply disruption after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil shipments — was reportedly blocked amid ongoing military tensions.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had taken control of the waterway while continuing missile and drone operations across the Gulf region.
China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, depends heavily on energy shipments passing through the strategic corridor. However, analysts say Beijing has sufficient strategic reserves to manage short-term supply disruptions while focusing on broader diplomatic priorities.
A major factor shaping China’s response is an upcoming summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, scheduled to begin on March 31 in China.
“The Iran crisis is unlikely to derail the Trump-Xi summit unless the United States launches a sweeping crackdown on Iran–China oil flows,” said Dan Wang, China director at the Eurasia Group.
According to analysts, Beijing views Tehran as a strategic partner rather than a military ally and is unlikely to risk confrontation with Washington by providing direct support to Iran.
China also maintains strong economic and diplomatic relations with Gulf countries, making any overt military backing for Iran highly unlikely.
In recent years, China has expanded its diplomatic influence in the Middle East, notably brokering a landmark 2023 agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations.
Tehran later became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a geopolitical bloc led by China and Russia.
Despite its diplomatic ties with Iran, China’s energy strategy remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil.
According to data from analytics firm Kpler, the Middle East supplied around 57% of China’s direct seaborne crude imports in 2025 — equivalent to approximately 5.9 million barrels per day. Of that total, about 1.4 million barrels per day came from Iran.
However, China has built extensive strategic oil reserves over the past decade to cushion supply shocks.
Kpler analyst Muyu Xu estimates that China currently holds around 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude oil inventories, equivalent to roughly 115 days of seaborne oil imports.
These reserves provide a significant buffer, enabling China to manage short-term disruptions and price volatility in global energy markets.
Meanwhile, Beijing has publicly criticized the U.S.-Israeli strikes that reportedly killed Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, urging an immediate halt to military operations.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Beijing “firmly opposes and strongly condemns” the attacks and called for efforts to prevent the conflict from spreading further across the region.
Despite the strong rhetoric, analysts say China is unlikely to escalate its involvement.
Economists at Capital Economics noted that Beijing has a clear interest in maintaining stability in global energy markets, especially since roughly half of its crude imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
They added that China would be cautious about actions that could be interpreted as facilitating attacks on the United States.
Energy analysts also suggest that Russia could benefit from the conflict if Middle Eastern oil supplies remain disrupted, as Russian crude could become a key alternative for major Asian importers such as China and India.
