Washington, DC – Web Desk: The World Bank has warned of a potential sharp spike in global energy prices due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with crude oil prices expected to rise significantly throughout 2026.
According to the World Bank’s latest commodity markets report, energy prices could increase by as much as 24 percent during 2026 if supply disruptions continue.
Even if regional tensions ease by May, the report said, price increases are likely to persist. However, a further escalation in hostilities could make energy even more expensive by disrupting supply chains more severely.
The World Bank noted that attacks on oil and gas facilities, combined with navigational disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of global petroleum passes—have severely impacted supply chains, with effects already visible in global markets.
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $86 per barrel in 2026, compared to an average of $69 per barrel in 2025, the report said.
Experts have warned that prices could rise even higher if energy infrastructure suffers additional damage or if trade routes are not fully restored.
The report also noted that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could gradually improve and return to pre-conflict levels by October. However, the World Bank stressed that this depends entirely on the restoration of peace and stability in the region.
Global consumers and import-dependent economies are likely to face higher inflation pressures if the price rally continues, the report added.
Neither OPEC nor major oil-producing nations have issued immediate responses to the World Bank’s latest projections.
