Trump Predicts Oil Prices Will Plunge After US ‘Victory’ in Iran War
WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES — WEB DESK: US President Donald Trump has predicted that global oil prices will fall sharply after what he described as an eventual American victory in the war with Iran, arguing that lower crude costs could eventually push US gasoline prices below $2 per gallon.
Trump made the prediction in a post on Truth Social, saying oil prices would decline “very rapidly” after the war was won. He said gasoline for American motorists could first fall to around $3 per gallon and ultimately below $2.
The president also reiterated his position that Iran would not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
Trump’s forecast comes at a particularly volatile moment for global energy markets, with the continuing US-Iran conflict and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeping crude prices elevated.
Oil Prices Rise Despite Trump’s Prediction
Current market conditions are moving in the opposite direction to Trump’s longer-term forecast.
On Tuesday, Brent crude rose to around $97.49 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate climbed to approximately $92.92, as traders assessed the possibility of a prolonged Middle East conflict and further disruptions to Gulf energy supplies.
Oil had already climbed to a six-week high on Monday. Brent settled at $97.31 per barrel, its highest closing level since July 24, while WTI finished at $92.65.
The gains followed renewed US-Iran clashes involving energy and maritime targets, intensifying concerns over the security of one of the world’s most important oil-producing regions.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical
A central source of uncertainty is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with international markets.
The route normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments, making any prolonged disruption potentially significant for energy prices and the wider global economy.
Shipping activity has slowed following Iranian threats of retaliation for further US attacks. Commodity-vessel crossings through Hormuz fell to only seven on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters, although vessels operating without active transponders may not be included in those figures.
Iran has also announced plans for a new restricted maritime zone and shipping corridor in the Gulf, adding further uncertainty for energy traders and shipping companies.
Trump’s Sub-$2 Gasoline Forecast Is Not Guaranteed
Trump’s prediction that gasoline could eventually fall below $2 a gallon should be treated as a political and economic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Even if the conflict ends, gasoline prices would depend on several factors beyond the White House’s direct control, including global crude supply, refinery capacity, fuel inventories, seasonal demand, shipping costs and market expectations.
The speed at which normal Gulf oil flows return would also be crucial.
Reuters reported Tuesday that pre-war Gulf oil flows of around 18 million barrels per day have fallen to roughly 11 million bpd, although alternative export routes and increased production outside OPEC have helped prevent benchmark Brent from moving decisively above $100.
Analysts See Risk of Elevated Oil Prices
Market forecasts currently illustrate how uncertain Trump’s prediction remains.
Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 forecasts to $85 per barrel for Brent and $80 for WTI, while analysts have warned that prolonged disruptions could keep crude prices elevated into 2027.
In a more severe scenario involving increased attacks on shipping, Goldman has previously warned that crude could rise substantially higher.
Physical oil markets are also showing signs of tightness despite benchmark Brent remaining below $100.
Non-OPEC production, weaker demand growth — particularly in China — and the use of strategic reserves have helped offset some of the supply disruption caused by the conflict.
Energy Prices Carry Political Stakes for Trump
The trajectory of fuel prices also has significant domestic political implications for Trump.
Higher gasoline costs directly affect US consumers and can feed broader inflation, making energy prices politically sensitive ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.
The continuing Iran conflict has therefore created a difficult economic equation for the administration: military escalation can increase pressure on Tehran, but instability around the Persian Gulf can simultaneously raise the energy costs faced by American households.
Trump is betting that a US victory would reverse that equation by restoring energy flows and driving prices sharply lower.
For now, however, markets are pricing in continued risk rather than an imminent return to cheap oil.
With Brent trading near $100 and Iran threatening further retaliation, whether Trump’s forecast materialises will depend not simply on how Washington defines “victory,” but on how quickly Gulf oil production, shipping and market confidence return to normal after the conflict.
