Karachi, Pakistan – Web Desk: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has released its Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, highlighting improving macroeconomic conditions, stable inflation projections, and a stronger growth outlook for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
According to the report, Pakistan’s macroeconomic environment has shown notable improvement, supported by prudent monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and easing financial conditions. The central bank expects inflation to remain within the 5–7% target range for most of FY2026 and FY2027, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to global commodity prices and domestic supply factors.
The SBP projects the current account deficit for FY2026 to stay between 0% and 1% of GDP, despite a relatively high trade deficit. The gap is expected to be partially offset by strong remittances and planned government revenues, helping stabilize the external sector. As a result, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to reach $18 billion by June 2026, with further increases expected in FY2027, bringing import cover close to three months.
The report also notes that economic activity has strengthened amid macroeconomic stability, fiscal easing, and a recent reduction in the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) to 5%, which has improved liquidity in the banking system. These factors have contributed to a more favorable growth outlook.
SBP now forecasts real GDP growth of 3.75% to 4.75% for FY2026, with expectations of even higher growth in FY2027 as reforms and stability measures continue to take effect. The central bank emphasized that sustained structural reforms, export growth, and investment inflows will be crucial to maintaining long-term economic stability.
Analysts view the report as a positive signal for investors and markets, reflecting growing confidence in Pakistan’s economic recovery trajectory amid ongoing IMF-supported reforms and fiscal discipline.
