Retired Lt Gen Mazhar Jamil says Indian military thinking and nuclear escalation risks threaten regional stability, urging political dialogue and stronger crisis-management measures.
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — WEB DESK: Retired Lieutenant General Mazhar Jamil, an adviser to Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA), has warned that Indian military doctrines and strategic thinking could increase the risk of escalation in South Asia, where India and Pakistan both possess nuclear weapons.
Speaking at a workshop on Nuclear Deterrence and Strategic Stability in South Asia organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, Jamil argued that military confrontation between the two countries could produce consequences beyond the control of political and military leaders.
Dawn reported on October 20 that the former director general of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division delivered the keynote address on October 13. The IISS subsequently shared a transcript of his remarks.
Jamil criticised what he described as ideological influences on Indian military thinking, arguing that strategic decisions should account for the risks associated with nuclear weapons and the possibility of escalation.
His comments represent Pakistan’s official security perspective on regional tensions. Several of his allegations about Indian policy, military intentions and support for militant groups were presented in the address and should be distinguished from independently established facts.
Nuclear escalation remains a central concern
Jamil said military action between nuclear-armed states could escalate beyond its original objectives, making restraint and political engagement essential to regional security.
He argued that conventional military operations cannot permanently resolve longstanding political disputes and called for dialogue between Islamabad and New Delhi.
The adviser identified Kashmir as a central unresolved dispute between the two countries. He called for a political settlement and referred to United Nations Security Council resolutions concerning the issue.
India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars and experienced repeated military crises since independence in 1947. Their disputes, particularly over Kashmir, continue to influence their security policies and bilateral relations.
Concerns over missiles and dual-capable weapons
Jamil also raised concerns about developments in nuclear and missile capabilities, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles and systems that can potentially carry either conventional or nuclear payloads.
He argued that advances in precision-guided weapons, space-based capabilities and other military technologies could make it harder for opposing sides to distinguish between conventional and nuclear operations during a crisis.
According to his address, the combination of advanced weapons, geographic proximity and limited arms-control arrangements increases the danger of miscalculation.
Jamil also criticised international nuclear cooperation with India, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver, arguing that external assistance had contributed to India’s growing strategic capabilities.
These assessments were his stated position; the article does not independently establish that India’s military developments are intended to facilitate nuclear escalation.
BrahMos missile incidents cited in the address
Jamil referred to the March 2022 incident in which an Indian BrahMos missile was accidentally launched and landed in Pakistan. India acknowledged the incident and described it as an accidental firing.
He questioned the transparency of India’s response and argued that the incident highlighted the importance of reliable command-and-control systems and timely communication between nuclear-armed neighbours.
He also referred to the military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May 2025, alleging that the use of dual-capable missile systems increased the risk of a dangerous miscalculation.
His remarks underline a wider security concern: when conventional military operations take place between nuclear powers, uncertainty about the capabilities and intentions behind particular weapons can complicate crisis management.
Calls for restraint and crisis-management mechanisms
Jamil argued that military pressure cannot substitute for political solutions and called for stronger mechanisms to manage future crises between India and Pakistan.
He said Pakistan remained prepared for dialogue and advocated a more structured crisis-management framework to reduce the risk of escalation.
He also urged the international community to pay closer attention to regional arms-control concerns and the implications of emerging military technologies.
The address included allegations that India supports militant organisations operating against Pakistan. Such claims require independent verification and should not be treated as established facts solely on the basis of the speech.
Why the warning matters
India and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities make the management of military crises a major regional and international security concern. Even a confrontation that begins with limited objectives could become more difficult to control if either side misreads the other’s intentions or capabilities.
Jamil’s remarks add to Pakistan’s calls for political engagement and greater attention to strategic stability. The long-term impact of the address will depend on whether the two countries can improve communication, reduce mistrust and establish practical safeguards against unintended escalation.
For South Asia, the central challenge remains preventing military crises from developing into a wider conflict while pursuing political solutions to outstanding disputes.
