Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government is increasingly unpopular among young voters, opinion polls show, a trend that could prove costly ahead of a national election due next year .
The Youth Vote Gap
Meloni’s coalition, comprising her Brothers of Italy Party (FDI), Matteo Salvini’s League and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia, now commands less than 30% of voting support among under-35s, according to Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of the Youtrend polling agency .
That compares with almost 50% in the same age group for the opposition bloc dominated by the Democratic Party (PD), the 5-Star Movement and the Left-Green Alliance (AVS). At the peak of Meloni’s popularity in 2023, her party alone attracted roughly the same support among young people as the whole ruling coalition does now .
Economic Inertia
Since taking office in 2022, Meloni has done little on the economic front to increase opportunities for the young, analysts say . Italy’s employment rate among 15- to 24-year-olds is the lowest in the 21-nation euro zone, and it invests less in education than almost all its partners in the bloc .
A young graduate in Germany earns on average 80% more than an Italian peer, and tens of thousands of young Italians leave the country every year in search of better prospects abroad .
The government’s approval rating among under-35 voters is just 25% compared with 35% among the overall population .
Law-and-Order Measures
Meloni has passed a raft of law-and-order measures that often disproportionately affect young people . These have targeted rave parties, “light” cannabis production, disruptive protests, squatters and juvenile crime .
A 2023 decree toughening sanctions for offending minors has triggered a 50% rise in the juvenile prison population . Last month, the government presented a bill reversing rules on criminal responsibility—those aged 14 to 17 who commit crimes will be considered fully responsible unless proven otherwise .
At the same time, teenagers cannot receive sex education in school without their parents’ written consent .
The Gender Gap
Young Italians present the same gender gap seen in other European countries, with men tending to vote more for the right and women favouring the left . Support for Meloni’s FDI stands at 15% among 18- to 29-year-old men but just 4.2% among women, while 5-Star is backed by 18% of women under 30 and just 5.1% of men .
Internal Competition
Meloni also faces competition for what remains of the youth vote in her own ideological camp. National Future, a far-right opposition party formed in February by former army general Roberto Vannacci, is already polling at about 7% .
“Vannacci is certainly holding up better with young voters than the ruling parties are,” Pregliasco said .
The Referendum Signal
Young voters helped sink a Meloni-backed referendum in March on justice system reform. Some 67% of under-35s cast a ballot, with 60% rejecting the reform, compared with an overall turnout of 59% of whom 54% voted “no.”
“The referendum showed what impact the young can have if they vote en masse,” said political science professor Lorenzo De Sio. “At the next election they could be decisive” .
What’s Next
With the 2027 election shaping up as a neck-and-neck race between Meloni’s rightist coalition and the centre-left opposition, the youth vote could prove decisive. Sensing the trouble, Meloni has already begun courting young voters through non-traditional platforms, including a podcast appearance with a popular rapper before the referendum .
Conclusion
Meloni’s failure to connect with young voters poses a significant challenge as Italy approaches the 2027 election. With economic policies failing to address youth unemployment and law-and-order measures disproportionately affecting young people, the opposition stands to benefit from the growing disaffection among under-35 voters.
