The current confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan has roots in the Doha Agreement of February 2020, when the United States and the Taliban reached a deal that set out a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces and promised a subsequent Afghan political settlement.
The agreement excluded the internationally recognized Afghan government from the negotiations. More than six years later, the promised political settlement remains elusive, while disputes over militant groups operating from Afghan territory have become a major source of tension between Islamabad and Kabul.
The agreement signed in Doha on February 29, 2020, rested on several key commitments.
The United States agreed to withdraw foreign forces from Afghanistan, while the Taliban pledged not to allow Afghan territory to be used against the United States or its allies. The agreement also envisaged intra-Afghan negotiations aimed at producing a political settlement.
However, the process did not produce the inclusive political arrangement envisaged by supporters of the agreement.
The Taliban captured Kabul in August 2021 before a negotiated political settlement had been completed. The internationally backed government collapsed, and the Taliban returned to power.
Instead of an inclusive power-sharing arrangement, the Taliban established an administration dominated by its own leadership and commanders.
The analysis argues that the absence of an inclusive political structure has contributed to Afghanistan’s continuing security problems and made it difficult for Kabul to address militant networks operating inside the country.
The Taliban has also faced international criticism over its restrictions on political participation and governance, while its relationship with militant organizations remains a major concern for Afghanistan’s neighbors.
Pakistan has been particularly affected by the deterioration in security along its western border.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad accuses of carrying out attacks from sanctuaries in Afghanistan, has become one of the central disputes between the two countries.
According to the analysis, Pakistan initially relied heavily on diplomacy, direct engagement and mediation efforts involving countries including Qatar and Türkiye. However, continued attacks and rising casualties have increasingly shifted Islamabad’s approach toward military pressure.
The Global Terrorism Index 2026, cited in the source material, ranked Pakistan as the country most affected by terrorism in 2025, with 1,139 deaths and 1,045 incidents.
The United Nations Security Council has reported the presence of more than 20 active regional and international terrorist organizations in Afghanistan.
The analysis argues that the presence of multiple armed groups has created a wider security challenge for Afghanistan’s neighbors, particularly Pakistan.
It identifies the TTP and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) among groups benefiting from the militant environment. Claims in the source regarding external financial or logistical support, including alleged Indian involvement, remain contested and should be understood as allegations rather than independently established facts.
Pakistan has repeatedly accused Afghanistan of allowing militant groups to operate from its territory. Kabul has rejected such accusations and has itself faced security threats from militant organizations.
Data cited from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded hundreds of TTP attacks against Pakistani security personnel and civilians between January 2021 and September 2025.
The analysis says Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have borne much of the violence, although attacks have affected other parts of Pakistan as well.
Analysts cited in the source argue that continued militant activity from Afghan territory, alongside tensions between Kabul and other neighboring countries, has increasingly become a regional security issue rather than a bilateral dispute alone.
Pakistan’s initial response centered on negotiations and diplomatic engagement. But according to the source, continuing attacks despite years of dialogue eventually led Islamabad to conclude that diplomatic measures alone were insufficient.
Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab Lil Haq on February 26, 2026, targeting what it described as terrorist infrastructure in several Afghan provinces.
The operation represented a significant escalation in Pakistan’s response to militant threats originating across the border.
The confrontation has also increasingly involved unmanned aerial systems.
The source reports nine cross-border drone incursions during June and July 2026, including four in Khyber and five in Balochistan.
It describes the drones as modified commercial quadcopters or small, custom-built kamikaze systems. However, claims regarding their specific origins and alleged supply chains should be treated as allegations unless independently verified.
The emergence of relatively inexpensive unmanned systems adds a new dimension to the security challenge along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
In June 2026, Afghanistan’s Defence Ministry claimed that it had conducted strikes against Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) camps in Khyber.
Pakistan’s Information Ministry rejected the claim, saying the Taliban government hosts ISKP and other militant organizations.
Islamabad said its air defenses had intercepted and neutralized a single rudimentary drone near Shinko in Khyber before it could cause significant damage.
The competing claims illustrate the widening information and security dispute between Kabul and Islamabad.
The Taliban inherited military infrastructure from the former Afghan government after taking Kabul in 2021.
According to assessments cited in the source, Afghanistan’s former air force had been heavily dependent on foreign maintenance, training and logistical support and was operating at limited readiness when the Taliban seized power.
Since then, pilot shortages, equipment problems and international isolation have further constrained Afghanistan’s conventional military capabilities.
Against this backdrop, claims that small cross-border drone incursions constitute an organized national air force capability remain disputed.
The Pakistan-Afghanistan confrontation now extends beyond traditional border disputes. It encompasses militant sanctuaries, cross-border attacks, diplomatic pressure, military operations and the growing use of unmanned systems.
For Pakistan, the central challenge is preventing attacks by militant organizations while avoiding a wider confrontation with Kabul. For the Taliban government, pressure is mounting to demonstrate that Afghan territory will not be used as a base for attacks against neighboring states.
The failure to establish the political settlement envisaged in the Doha process remains an important part of the broader context. Six years after the agreement, unresolved security questions continue to shape relations between Afghanistan and its neighbors.
The path from the Doha Agreement to today’s Pakistan-Afghanistan confrontation reflects the collapse of a planned political transition and the emergence of a complex regional security environment.
The Taliban’s return to Kabul did not produce the negotiated settlement envisioned in 2020, while the persistence of militant networks has deepened mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul.
As diplomacy gives way to military pressure and drone warfare, the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations will depend heavily on whether both sides can address the underlying security dispute without allowing the confrontation to develop into a broader regional conflict.
