Houthi advances and attacks on Saudi shipping are increasing risks around the strategic Red Sea chokepoint as regional tensions escalate.
Web Desk: The Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, is facing growing security risks as Yemen’s Houthi group intensifies its military activity around the strategic waterway.
The latest escalation has raised concerns over the safety of commercial shipping and oil exports, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted amid the wider Middle East conflict.
Yemen’s Houthis have launched a major ground assault around the Bab al-Mandab area while exchanging attacks with Saudi Arabia. The developments have increased concerns about a potential disruption to one of the world’s important maritime trade routes.
Why Bab al-Mandab matters
The Bab al-Mandab, meaning “Gate of Tears,” lies at the southern end of the Red Sea between Yemen and the African countries of Djibouti and Eritrea.
The waterway is about 100 kilometres long and approximately 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. It connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and ultimately the Indian Ocean.
The strait is particularly important because ships travelling between Asia and Europe can use the Red Sea and Suez Canal to avoid the much longer route around Africa.
Oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels have historically relied on the corridor as one of the most important links between major global markets.
Houthi attacks have already disrupted shipping
Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping during the Gaza war caused a major decline in traffic through the region.
According to IMF PortWatch data analysed by AFP, total Suez Canal transits fell from 26,895 vessels in 2023 to 14,498 in 2024 and 14,070 in 2025.
Average traffic during January-August 2026 stood at about 40.8 vessels per day, still slightly more than half the pre-crisis level.
The Houthis have said their attacks are linked to support for Palestinians and have previously targeted vessels they said had connections to Israel.
Growing pressure on Saudi oil exports
The Bab al-Mandab has become even more important for energy markets since disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz reduced the availability of traditional Gulf shipping routes.
Saudi crude shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu rose sharply after the regional war began, reaching an estimated average of around 3.8 million barrels per day between March and July, according to Kpler data cited by AFP.
However, shipments fell to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in August after the Houthis resumed attacks on Saudi shipping in July.
Preliminary Kpler data put exports at around 2.44 million barrels per day during the first nine days of September, although the figure remains subject to revision.
Reuters separately reported that Saudi Red Sea crude loadings had recovered in early September but remained closely watched because of renewed Houthi attacks around the Bab al-Mandab region.
Houthi advance increases strategic concerns
The Houthis do not currently control the coastal areas immediately bordering the Bab al-Mandab, although they hold the major Red Sea port of Hodeidah.
AFP reported that a Yemeni military source said the Houthis had seized the coastal city of Mokha, increasing their strategic position closer to the waterway.
Reuters reported separately that Houthi forces seized Mocha and advanced toward the strategic Hanish Islands, developments that could give the group greater leverage over the maritime corridor.
The Houthis have denied that they intend to replicate Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by physically closing Bab al-Mandab or imposing transit fees.
Risk may come from uncertainty
Security experts say the biggest threat may not necessarily be a complete physical closure of the waterway.
Andreas Krieg of King’s College London told AFP that persistent uncertainty could itself reduce shipping through the Red Sea and increase costs for global trade.
He warned that prolonged instability could suppress Suez Canal traffic while adding time and expense to trade between Europe and Asia.
The strategic importance of the waterway is particularly significant because the Bab al-Mandab has become a more important alternative route for Saudi oil exports while shipping through Hormuz remains severely disrupted.
Reuters reported on September 10 that 28 commodity-ship movements were recorded through Bab al-Mandab, broadly in line with its 10-day average, even as traffic through Hormuz remained at unusually low levels.
Global oil markets remain vulnerable
Any prolonged disruption around Bab al-Mandab could add further pressure to already fragile global energy markets.
The risk is not limited to oil. Reduced shipping through the Red Sea can also increase freight costs, lengthen journeys and put additional pressure on supply chains connecting Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
With conflict continuing across several parts of the region, the Bab al-Mandab is emerging as another major pressure point for global trade and energy security.
