Russia Could Launch Limited NATO Attack Within Months, Denmark Warns
COPENHAGEN, DENMARK — WEB DESK: Denmark’s defence intelligence service has warned of a “low but growing risk” that Russia could carry out a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia in the coming months, while assessing that a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO territory remains highly unlikely.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) issued the assessment on Thursday as European governments confront growing concerns over Russian cyber operations, sabotage and other forms of so-called hybrid warfare.
Importantly, the assessment does not say that Denmark expects Russia to launch a full-scale attack on NATO within months. Instead, it identifies a limited military action as a low-probability but increasing risk.
Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the Danish intelligence service, said an outright invasion remained “highly unlikely,” although the possibility could not be completely excluded.
What Could a Limited Russian Attack Look Like?
The Danish assessment outlined several potential scenarios.
A limited operation could involve isolated missile or drone strikes against NATO infrastructure used to support Ukraine, according to reporting on the intelligence assessment. Another scenario could involve a small number of Russian troops crossing into a NATO country neighbouring Russia, potentially without national insignia.
The assessment also raised the possibility of false-flag operations involving Ukrainian-made drones.
Such actions could be designed to test whether NATO members were prepared to invoke their collective-defence commitments and respond together.
Under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an armed attack against one NATO member can be treated as an attack against all members.
Danish intelligence assesses that Moscow could be tempted to test that principle if it concluded that NATO governments were divided or uncertain about mounting a collective response.
Hybrid Attacks Seen as More Immediate Threat
The more immediate concern identified by Danish intelligence involves hybrid warfare rather than a conventional invasion.
DDIS expects Russia to intensify hybrid operations against Western and NATO countries in the coming months, potentially with more serious consequences than previous incidents.
Possible tactics include destructive cyberattacks against critical infrastructure and sabotage operations carrying a risk of casualties.
Hybrid warfare generally refers to actions below the threshold of conventional armed conflict, including cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation, interference operations and covert activity.
According to the Danish assessment, such operations could seek to undermine European public support for Ukraine, disrupt military assistance and deepen political divisions inside NATO.
Full-Scale NATO Invasion Still Considered Highly Unlikely
Despite the striking warning, Danish officials stressed that there are currently no indications Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion of NATO territory.
DDIS estimates that Russia would require at least six months to build up sufficient forces for such an operation, and preparations on that scale would be difficult to conceal.
Even a limited deployment involving Russian ground forces would require preparations near NATO borders that Western intelligence services could potentially detect.
Ahrenkiel also specifically said Denmark does not expect a conventional Russian military attack against Denmark.
This distinction is critical when reporting the assessment: Danish intelligence is warning about a potential limited attack or provocation, not forecasting an imminent Russian invasion of NATO.
Intelligence Says Moscow Could Seek to Divide NATO
Danish intelligence believes one possible Russian objective would be to test NATO’s political unity.
A limited operation could force alliance members to decide whether the incident was serious enough to warrant a collective response.
The assessment warned of a risk that Moscow could conclude NATO members would not respond collectively, particularly if Russia perceived uncertainty over US support for European allies.
The intelligence service also believes Russia could use hybrid attacks to force European governments to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
Moscow has repeatedly denied accusations that it is conducting sabotage and hybrid attacks against Western countries.
European Security Concerns Intensify
The Danish warning comes amid heightened concern across Europe over attacks and suspected sabotage involving infrastructure connected to Ukraine.
Polish authorities this week described a fire at a Starlink satellite ground station as an act of sabotage, although responsibility for the incident has not been established.
Other European intelligence officials have also raised concerns about the possibility of Russian provocations designed to test NATO’s response.
However, assessments across Europe differ over how imminent the danger is, and Danish intelligence itself characterises the probability of a limited military attack as low but increasing rather than likely or inevitable.
The latest assessment therefore represents a warning about a changing risk environment rather than evidence that Russia has decided to attack NATO.
For publication, the key distinction is: Denmark warns that a limited Russian military action against NATO could occur within months, but says the risk remains low and a full-scale invasion is highly unlikely.
